Saturday, June 15, 2013

La receta de más plata no basta


Los banqueros centrales de los países desarrollados han utilizado todo lo que tenían en la caja de herramientas en su esfuerzo por reactivar la economía global y asi evitar caer en un escenario de depresión económica similar a la de fines de los años 20. Uno mira los balances de los bancos centrales y simplemente el impulso monetario ha sido masivo. No obstante ello, ninguno de esos banqueros centrales puede decir que la tarea está hecha. Hoy, la inflación de los países del G-7 es menos de 1 por ciento y con una tendencia declinante. Por el lado de la actividad económica, siguen apareciendo nuevas revisiones a la baja de las expectativas de crecimiento de dichas economías en lugar de señales claras que el problema ha sido resuelto. Como lo ha mostrado recientemente Japón la receta de salida sigue siendo apostar por echar más dinero a la economía.
Los mecanismos bajo los cuales debería operar satisfactoriamente este impulso monetario sin precedentes son a través del consumo, de la inversión, y del propio sistema financiero. La idea en simple es que si el Banco Central se las ingenia para bajar las tasas de financiamiento de las decisiones de consumo e inversión, ambas variables deberían repuntar y sacar a la economía de la recesión. Para esto, en tiempos normales basta reducir la tasa de referencia de corto plazo de los bancos centrales. En tiempos complicados como éstos ha sido necesario aplicar lo que se llama la expansión cuantitativa que apunta directamente a reducir las tasas de largo plazo. Y después de casi 3 trillones de dólares de expansión monetaria en EEUU, el consumo y la inversión han respondido sólo moderadamente. 
El otro mecanismo que debería ayudar en este proceso es el que opera a través del sistema financiero. Los bancos centrales han inyectado directamente en los bancos una cantidad impresionante de dinero con la esperanza de que éstos movilicen dichos recursos adicionales a tasas más baratas y de esta manera se reactiven los proyectos de inversión y no se suspendan las decisiones de consumo. El problema es que los bancos pueden optar por no prestar los fondos extra que reciben porque en su evaluación no hay buenos clientes. Esta percepción puede ser el producto de la crisis financiera misma que los ha hecho ser más reticentes a tomar riesgo. Asimismo, los propios clientes potenciales pueden ver que a pesar de que existan señales que muestran mejoras en su riqueza, como el aumento en el precio de sus propiedades, o un alza en la bolsa de valores, la falta de dinamismo del mercado laboral puede ser suficiente para enterrar su entusiasmo por endeudarse otra vez. Especialmente, si es que dicho consumidor o empresa viene cinco años en un proceso de desapalancamiento, es decir, de reducir su excesivo nivel de deuda.
El problema es que el mercado bancario norteamericano toma el impulso monetario y se lo devuelve al Banco Central en casi su totalidad. Hoy, la proporción de activos utilizados para otorgar crédito en los bancos comerciales está en su nivel mínimo de los últimos 40 años. Es clave entender las razones por las cuales estos mecanismos no están funcionando si es que realmente se quiere sacar a la economía de la recesión luego de 5 largos años, sino tendremos 5 años más de una lenta recuperación.

Publicado en El Comercio, Junio 15, 2013

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