Sunday, April 24, 2011

Pensiones: más solidaridad sin destruir lo avanzado

Empiezo el análisis con tres datos de nuestra realidad.

(1) Tres de cada cien adultos mayores en situación de pobreza tendrán acceso a una pensión. En vez de festejar su jubilación seguirán trabajando. (2) Uno de cada cuatro trabajadores contribuye a un sistema de pensiones y tendrá derecho a alguna pensión, el resto ahorra de otras maneras (vivienda, negocio propio) para tener una fuente de recursos cuando quieran jubilarse. (3) El Estado usa los impuestos que pagamos todos para pagar pensiones y para garantizar una pensión mínima (415 nuevos soles) a aquellos que califican después de aportar 20 años.

Es evidente que hace falta hacer algo. Este gobierno empezó el programa Gratitud, que entrega 100 nuevos soles mensuales a adultos mayores de 75 años en situación de pobreza extrema. No se les exige haber hecho aportes previos, es lo que se llama una pensión no contributiva.

En el plan de Gana Perú se ha sugerido iniciar Pensión 65. De acuerdo con el plan, el programa será universal para quien cumpla 65 años. Se entregará una pensión de 250 soles al mes y su financiamiento será una parte con impuestos y otra con una contribución forzosa a todos los afiliados a través de un impuesto sobre los aportes.

Hace un par de años hice los cálculos sobre cuál sería el costo bajo diferentes escenarios. Déjenme contar dos de ellos que ilustran el punto. Si el programa fuera para todos los adultos mayores en pobreza y si se le diera 300 nuevos soles al mes, el costo sería 1,5% del PBI al año. Esto se recauda con 3 puntos del IGV. Es equivalente al doble de lo que hoy gasta el Gobierno en todos los programas sociales (Juntos, Vaso de Leche, etc).

Si el programa fuera de 100 soles y se destinara a aquellos en pobreza extrema (como Gratitud), el costo sería 0,2% del PBI.

La primera versión es imposible de financiar sin recurrir a un impuesto que confisque los fondos de pensiones privados que se suponen intangibles. La segunda sí se puede financiar sin necesidad de tocar los fondos privados.

El siguiente gobierno debería buscar aumentar la formalidad para que cada uno obtenga su pensión. No tiene sentido ser solidario a la fuerza y con dinero ajeno. No se puede ser tan generoso porque hay quienes aportan 20 años para recibir un poco más. Avancemos sin destruir lo avanzado.

Publicado en El Comercio Abril 23, 2011


Anonymous said...

Buen dia,señor Moron. Respecto a su articulo, le recomiendo dar una revisada a este link:

Los puntos principales del plan son: que SOLO se le otorgara pension a los adultos mayores que no reciben pension de la ONP o las APFs, y a los adultos mayores que no reciben ni un ingreso. Otro punto es que este plan es perfectamente financiable con recursos que provendran de la reforma tributaria(basicamente a las mineras). ¿Porque intervenir en ese sector? Pues porque simplemente no es posible que las AFPs tengan tasas de rentabilidad anuales superiores al 100% y que los adultos mayores reciban una miseria de pension.Ademas de que el plan no afectara mucho al tesoro publico, en tanto que la pension es factor de demanda, que retornara en parte a traves del IGV o el ISC, a lo que se debe de agregar a que el plan no costara ni el 1% del PBI

Eduardo Morón said...

Financiar gastos permanentes con ingresos temporales!! Eso no se hace.

José Carlos said...

Señor Moron, he leído este artículo:

que dice totalmente lo opuesto a lo que usted menciona. Por no decir que es mas riguroso del ensayo, que usted propone.
Me gustaría tener sus comentarios, porque como tantos peruanos tengo dudas sobre lo que se dice de todo esto.
un saludo
José Aguado

Javier said...


Eduardo Morón said...

Creo que no has leido bien los comentarios de Javier. Es claro que ambos consideramos necesario focalizar el programa y ambos estamos conscientes de los efectos perversos sobre la formalidad si se diseña mal el programa.
Ambos compartimos una visión que algo se debe y puede hacer pero no hay ninguna necesidad de destruir lo avanzado.

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